There’s a million things I haven’t done。

Waiting for airdrops, waiting for death

Listening to Teacher Zhuzhu's lecture, taking notes:

  1. The trading volume and turnover on the meme.
  2. When participating in airdrops, it is important to consider the return rate. Airdrops with low return rates can be skipped, as the success rate is approximately 1:10.
  3. High contract fees indicate a highly speculative market, and speculation may lead to a crash.
  4. Most of the time, news does not affect the actual market situation. News in the cryptocurrency industry does not have an absolute impact unless it creates panic selling.
  5. Insufficient skill level can result in a small market movement.
  6. Support and resistance levels, as well as market sentiment.
  7. When the daily trading volume of a cryptocurrency approaches or exceeds half of its circulating market value, it is likely to reach its peak in the short term.

Indeed, I participated in the airdrop, but I suffered losses. The Ton ecosystem is collapsing.
The snapshot for the Ton airdrop was confusing. Its anti-whale strategy was too aggressive, resulting in many accounts being banned. I feel a bit constrained.
I only had a large account for the airdrop, and coincidentally, Fish experienced a significant drop, so I invested all my Ton into it.
Now, let's calculate the profit and loss ratio.
Should I liquidate Ton for emergency risk aversion? No, it's easy to make hasty decisions. Let's calculate the profit and loss ratio first.

Currently, I have approximately $1300 left in my balance, which means I lost $10,000. Even if it airdropped to me, I would receive a maximum of 40 Ton for one account, which is worth $880 at the current price. This airdrop would result in a guaranteed loss. Let's not fantasize about a second airdrop and start implementing stop-loss measures.
Now I understand why I didn't receive airdrops on my other wallets. Ton has implemented strict anti-whale measures, possibly based on IP or account creation time. In any case, it can use this information to locate me.
I am now under financial pressure, so I must seize every investment opportunity.
I am injured, but I am not dead.
The problem with NFTs is their poor liquidity, resulting in high gas fees. I am not good at participating in airdrops, so I should actively invest and monitor the price trends.
Participating in airdrops is a zero-sum game that will gradually disappear. I probably won't participate in airdrops anymore for the following reasons:

  1. I don't have that much time.
  2. Airdrops are a zero-sum game, with only two outcomes: participating or not participating.
  3. Good airdrop opportunities are rare and difficult to judge.
  4. The profit and loss ratio for airdrops should be at least 1:10.
  5. The current market conditions are not favorable for anyone to take over.

Now, what should I do? I need to organize my equipment and prepare for the next venture, liquidating NFTs.
Should I liquidate my Notcoin NFTs? I think it's unnecessary for now. These four addresses have already been flagged as whales. The cost of selling Notcoin is around 3 Ton, which is approximately $15. It's not worth it. Let's see how the coin performs.
What should be the next step?

  1. Look for high-probability opportunities.
  2. Sign in on trading platforms every day.

Is there still a chance for the Ton network?
The opportunities in the entire market are leaning towards waiting, but it's uncertain.

Alright, now how can I make money?
Development + monitoring the market.
When trading, I must diligently monitor the market. Without monitoring, there is no winning rate.
Strive to surpass 80% of traders.
Airdrops can be participated in, but the success rate should be at least five times higher. I will definitely avoid airdrops like NFTs. Airdrops are zero-sum games, and losses should be within a range that doesn't hurt.
This is a course worth $1400.
What is the next airdrop?
Blockchain games, coins, NFTs.
Ah, it's Notcoin. The anti-whale measures for this airdrop were not sufficient. I should be more careful and cautious next time.
What is the next airdrop? Is it Notcoin, blockchain games, or NFTs? Notcoin, when will it be released?
Wait a moment, let's check the trading volume of Notcoin. I don't plan to touch NFTs. Will I be identified as a whale again this time? I don't know, but I can give it a try. What if it burns gas fees?
Why should I try? Why not create a new account? Will a new account be more likely to be banned? I can give it a try. Let's continue managing the accounts.
I estimate that the next airdrop has two possibilities: either Notcoin or blockchain games. NFTs are unlikely since I already participated in one round. So, the next airdrop target is only Notcoin.
Wait for Notcoin.

Candlestick charts are the king, don't focus on valuation.
When the price is at a low level and trading sideways, it is likely to rise instead of falling further. When the price is at a high level and trading sideways, it is likely to fall instead of rising.

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