There’s a million things I haven’t done。

Deer's Crypto Trading Diary

How can we become friends with time?#


Today, I played Fish and watched a YouTube video that was very provocative. When I bought it, I felt that it had risen too sharply. Based on past cycles, it would definitely have a pullback, but I couldn't predict whether it would pull back. I didn't want to wait, so I bought it directly. I bought a position of 0.7 in the afternoon, and then I thought about it in the evening. Since it's an opportunity, I added about 1,000 yuan to the position, which is about 0.9, and I established a position at 0.8.

I have a long-term view on this coin, which is roughly between March and May. The current market value is about 30 million, with liquidity around 640,000. From a long-term perspective, I think this is a typical example of Web2 to Web3 transition. It has practical significance and is established in my value system.

Then at midnight, I saw it drop by 30%, down to 0.5. So I started to regret it. If I were friends with time, I would wait for it to pull back before buying, and I could buy 30% more coins, which would earn me more. How much is a 30% profit? 1,200 yuan.

This reminded me of my experience buying ShiB before. In 2021, when I first entered the cryptocurrency market, I bought ShiB. The community was very enthusiastic and there were many hidden benefits. It had just been listed on Binance. I spent all my savings to buy ShiB, but couldn't stand the slow money-making process, so I started doing short-term trading and then entered into contracts, which resulted in a classic liquidation. I was too tired to stay up all night and the next day when I woke up, I received a text message from Binance saying, "Your money has been liquidated."

Later, ShiB rose by thousands of times. At that time, I invested about 3,000 yuan, which turned into 3 million yuan. My fate would have changed drastically.

But I didn't. Of course, this doesn't mean that Fish will rise by thousands of times, nor does it mean that I should have ignored the software and turned a deaf ear to it. There are many reasons for this, whether it's a shallow understanding of contracts or the impact of short-term facts on rational judgment, leading to panic, irritability, and anxiety caused by staying up all night. But ultimately, the root cause is that I am not friends with time. Time is my enemy.

The cryptocurrency market involves value judgments, but short-term value judgments are too matched. It requires constantly chasing hotspots and identifying positive factors, which is one approach. But there is another approach, which is to become friends with time and extend the prediction cycle to 3-6 months to assess its value.

Make money based on your own understanding. In a bull market, Telegram, reliable project teams, appropriate marketing, undervalued assets, well-designed websites, active communities, memorable names, and enthusiastic project teams. At worst, you won't make money, but you won't lose either.

My understanding is here. Let's see it in three to five months. At most, it's just 4,000 yuan. If I throw it away, I throw it away. Let's focus on our main business. There are thousands of things waiting for you to achieve here!

Some are investments, some are speculations#


Today, Fish's OpenLeague vote was stolen, so it's probably unlikely to get on OpenLeague. It can only be said that the preparation was insufficient. So currently, the loss is about 3/8, or 37.5%. The judgment of the resistance level is still okay, and there has been progress in technical analysis skills. However, there may still be a downturn after the results are announced at 3 pm this afternoon. After all, there is already a breakthrough in the resistance level. So, should I focus on it until 3 pm? OK, even though it's currently 2 pm, I'm not planning to continue paying attention to it.

Because I only invested 4,000 yuan, even though it is my entire asset now, if I really lose it, it won't have a significant impact on my life, just affecting my mood for a while.

I must be clear and understand that I can't get rich through Web3, whether it's a bull market or a bear market. The liquidity of FISH is $100,000, and the market value is about 23 million. I think a market value of about 200 million can increase by 10 times, which is about 40,000 yuan. 100 times? 2 billion? 400,000? It's not impossible, but it requires a long time to wait for it.

OK, now I am clear that I want to make value investments. Why did I buy FISH?

  1. It's trendy, and I like trendy things. It goes well with Telegram.
  2. TON is an early chain with development prospects, from Web2 to Web3. I have high hopes for it, and I agree with ChainCatcher, the person in charge, who said there is speculation surplus and insufficient fundamentals. Binance is the leader in speculation, but Web3 is just a pie in the sky for Binance. Can Web3 exist without Web2? No.
  3. WLD feels great, but the benefits are too easy to obtain. TON is the leader, but TON's market value is too high. FISH's market value is just right, not too high or too low, and it won't easily go to zero, with expectations of an increase.
  4. The FISH team is really dedicated. They communicate every day, have enthusiasm every day, have a nice official website, beautiful UI, and their design capabilities are on par with Telegram. A team that is dedicated to the product, I think it's okay.

In the past, I missed out on a thousand-fold increase in Shib. OK, I think it's fine. Because my understanding tells me that it may not explode after a year. Now I believe in FISH because of the favorable conditions and the people involved, only the right timing is lacking.

How many years has it been for Web3? After more than ten years of development, it is still speculation, still financial speculation. AI has already emerged as a trend, and will the future be the era of blockchain? At the very least, blockchain cannot be killed. Capital is profit-driven. If you let applications have the power to issue currency, they will definitely do so. If you want to enter a plutocratic society, let plutocrats exercise national power, bypassing the supervision of national politics and economic factors, Web3 is the only solution.

So what is the universal currency? BTC or USDT? The pricing of a service is best to have a certain stability, right?

Then what is the trend? Should each application issue its own token or choose a universal token? BTC? BNB? TON? SOL? If you want a universal token, first, it needs to have low fees, second, it needs high consensus, and third, it needs fairness. The first two are simple, and fairness is the most difficult. OK, if my Web2 company transitions to Web3, why should I use your token? What benefits do you give me? Why? Based on what? I can create my own token and then convert it on a public chain, isn't that the most profitable?

That's why TON exists. Can Web3 entrepreneurial teams create new applications? I don't think so. People in Web3 are too impetuous, they just play pass the parcel. I don't believe they can do practical things. Telegram can, it has WeChat Pay as a benchmark and has the power to issue its own currency.

Ownership of this post data is guaranteed by blockchain and smart contracts to the creator alone.